The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon”s portion of the intraday slide measured 40 points from high to low. The 1996.25 cash session close was considered a hold-short, and the futures close extended down to 1991.25. Despite the final hour”s entry being within the bias environment”s range, sellers still gained traction because the 3:10-3:20 window trended down to fresh lows that confirmed the bias environment”s bearish exit.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initially bouncing through midnight to 1997.25 suddenly plunged to 1988.00. That was recovered by a fresh high at 1999.00. Its reaction down attacked 1991.25, but 1997.25-1999.00 attracted price right back up again. Now 1999.00 is being tested as support by a reaction down from 2003.00. That”s just within 1 tick of the resistance of this morning”s 2003.25 bias-up signal.

If, then…
One yesterday”s last critical observations was not to trust the bounce coming out of the bias environment. It had slowed the drop”s pace and was 10 points higher, but it had not recovered a prior high. The same can be said in principle about the overnight bounce. Sellers gained traction yesterday, so fresh lows are in store unless the open were to gap up above a prior high. And this overnight bounce is nowhere near a prior high. Gapping up might still be bullish if an intraday probe of fresh lows were recovered to close back above the open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.00 would be likely to trigger the 2003.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1997.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. And exiting the open under 1986.75 would be likely to trigger the 1990.75 bias-down.