The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s session was a wide-ranging inside day, spent exclusively in negative territory after gapping down. But it was more interesting in two ways. First was the late-morning reversal up from having trended down post-open, saved by a trial balloon that would seem to relieve Grexit fears. A second highlight was the afternoon bias environment”s exit, which had just rallied back to unchanged (filling the open”s gap), only to plunge 31 points to a fresh session low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Initial firming to 1993.00 was reversed to a fresh low at 1984.00, but that was soon recovered to 1995.00.More sideways ranging since then has included a touch of 1998.00, which is not delaying a reaction back down into the range at 1994.00.

If, then…
France”s support for Greece was leaked yesterday, but so far nothing more concrete has emerged regarding the real stumbling block, which is German. Friday morning”s trial balloon has drawn focus to Grexit. Without a solidly sourced statement sooner rather than later, selling could resume. At least, I would assume as much, since the pattern suggests fresh will be probed today unless opening strength can avoid being too shallow. Probing fresh lows could still be recovered intraday, but probably not after today.

First Trade…
[NOTE THIS MORNING”S REVISED BIAS-UP PARAMETERS]
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1998.75 would be likely at least to test the 2002.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2004.50 would be likely also to trigger bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1994.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and increasingly likely to at least test the 1983.25 bias-down signal.