The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report was largely retraced before the open. The cash session rallied back to it, and through it, hovering into the noon hour. But the afternoon was essentially the opposite — trending back down into negative territory. The upper-end of the 2041.00-2044.00 target area was attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Bouncing into the cash session”s close at 2050.50 extended nearly 6 points higher.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s 2050.00 open immediately returned Friday”s post-close extension. Then the 2041.00 target was met. Its reaction up to 2047.00 (where I sent an overnight update) was reversed to a fresh low at 2039.50. Its 6-point bounce back up to Friday”s low was retraced entirely, but no lower — at least, not yet. Meanwhile, the Euro”s non-reaction (small circle) to an unbending Greece and a doubtful Greenspan has also reversed (much, much bigger circle).

If, then…
The Euro”s reversal down seems relatively bigger than the ES. They”re timing isn”t in synch, but ES is bouncing again back up to Friday”s 2044.50 low, while the Euro is extending lower. Their relationship has changed a little from earlier, but the door remains open to ES reversing up this morning — although now with a likelihood of one more fresh low actually testing this morning”s 2039.00 bias-down target.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2041.00 would be likely also to exit the bias timing window at 10:15 under the 2039.00 bias-down target, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2050.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2044.00 bias-down signal.