The First Trade.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s choppiness still managed to include an afternoon rally from 2053.25 up to 2069.75. The overall effort was very disjointed, first creating “unfinished business below” at its oversold RSIs, and ultimately neutralizing unfinished business above at the morning”s bias-up signal. The singular probe above Friday high was not complex before reacting down to 2061.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Firming into and out of Wednesday”s futures close was apparently caused by rumors from the Eurogroup meeting of agreement to kick the can further down the road. Within minutes, it was touching 2079.50. Greece soon walked that back, and eventually negative territory was probed down to 2058.50. Having been corrected, firming again into Europe”s opens soon resumed rallying, so far reaching 2077.75.

If, then…
Yesterday”s close barely managed to form a hold-short whose bounce limit was exceeded a minute too late to disqualify the setup. Its maximum stop was triggered moments later, illustrating why the setup is not appropriate for any illiquid cash instrument. The setup illustrated something else, too — context. Greeting the news from the hold-short”s position of weakness made the knee-jerk reaction suspicious. The question now is whether already having reversed it all overnight, having probed back under the setup”s original low, allows the overnight rally to extend higher intraday uninterrupted.Other than stopping short of touching Wednesday afternoon”s oversold RSIs, the bullish template”s pattern and timing is playing out. Even the overnight selling”s measurements fit, albeit from a much higher level that avoided touching yesterday afternoon”s low.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2078.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2074.00 bias-up target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2070.75 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target in time to renew the signal. But the open must be exited under 2065.50 before suggesting the 2067.75 bias-up signal won”t even trigger.