The First Trade… Breaking out of a cage.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s rally had fulfilled the rally’s 2088.00 objective, probing it by nearly 7 points. Its reaction down had greeted Friday’s open at Thursday morning’s 2084.50 high. Extending down to 2077.50 was recovered through the noon hour to test 2088.00 for the first time intraday. The balance of the afternoon fell to fresh lows testing and retesting 2076.00. A very last-minute plunge slid to 2069.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s last-minute plunge wasn’t rejected. Not immediately. Rather, Sunday night’s open extended the slide down to 2066.00. Lower lows eventually touched 2064.25, but a rally at Europe’s opens recovered back up to 2076.00. But no higher as of yet, hovering there for a couple of hours.

If, then…
The overnight low bottomed upon testing this morning’s 2064.50 bias-down target. Despite neutralizing its attraction, the rally’s 2088.00 objective need not be retested intraday. Extending back down immediately is more possible if no gap is left outstanding. So, retracing all of Friday’s late plunge may only prevent a gap from inhibiting an intraday decline. The open must recover more than 2076.00 before beginning to suspect momentum is reversing back up. Momentum reversing back up would likely target a retest of Thursday night’s 2094.75 high.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2080.50 would be likely to trigger the 2079.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2075.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2071.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2069.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.