The First Trade… Bullishness at work.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 21-point gap up to 1896.00 extended up to 1907.00 at the morning’s high, testing the 1904.75 target. It was retraced down to 1886.50 at the noon hour’s low, to within 2 ticks of the bias-down target. The balance of the afternoon climbed back to fresh highs fulfilling its 1909.75 room for noise above the morning’s target. Closing there instead of higher or lower prevented putting into play the next higher objective. or signaling that this one had held.

Overnight action’s new info…
The reaction to 1909.75 was a 9-point reaction down into and out of the Globex open. Firming back to the morning’s 1907.00 high then accelerated its pace up to 1927.50.  Higher highs into and out of Europe’s opens touched 1929.50. But that has reacted down to 1918.00.

If, then…
Gapping down seems unlikely. The other bearish scenario following yesterday’s rally included probing fresh highs before revering down before noon. The next higher objective at 1915.00 wasn’t one bit influential overnight as resistance, so it should be tested as support. Its room for noise up to 1921.25 has been probed overnight only, and not yet post-open. That could make the difference between whether a dip to 1915.00 holds, or breaks lower — not yet probing above 1921.25 before testing 1915.00 would be more vulnerable to extending down. Otherwise, recovering 1921.25 through a relevant timing window would extend the corrective rally, while making its eventual failure much likelier to extend much lower.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1918.50 would be likely to exceed the 1915.00 bias-up target at 10:15 and to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1913.25 would be unlikely to renew bias-up.