The First Trade… Cavalry coming (from a distance)
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Well, that’s interesting. The inverted morning-long rally signal had scared away buyers ahead of expiration. Through yesterday afternoon’s no-bias environment, the market had been ranging choppily sideways between the morning’s 2038.50 low and the afternoon’s 2050.50 bias-up signal. Pent-up buying pressure could have begun breaking higher within 10-15 minutes of the 2:30 bias environment exit but didn’t (which is when I had to leave early). The exit, itself, was drifting lower, so a rally was unlikely. Even the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window drifted. Then the last 5 minutes plunged to end the cash session at 2032.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s closing plunge barely paused until attacking 2022.00 through the Globex open. That extended to 2015.50 and then lower to 2012.00 — after an interim attack on 2030.00 triggered by the Yen’s overnight head-fake. The 2012.00 low is being retested now.
If, then…
Today’s bullish WedEX couldn’t ask for much more. So little more*, that not fulfilling it could be due to a massive afternoon meltdown. WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning. If Thursday morning’s slide helped to discount recent gains from expiration jockeying, then the overnight slide should be a windfall to the bullish WedEX driving price higher into and out of the weekend… *That “little more” which a bullish WedEX would still want for a Friday afternoon rally is lack of Friday morning follow-through. Lower highs centered around 2012.00 at 2008.00-2014.50 represent “lower prior highs” of the Fri-Mon Island that had required a retest. Exiting the morning’s bias environment back above that range would start to signal that sellers likely absorbed. Already rallying through the morning would not steal any energy from the bullish WedEX. However, trending down through the morning could invert the WedEX to bearish. And all that that entails.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2015.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting above 2030.00 would be likely to trigger the 2027.00 bias-up signal.