The First Trade… Compensating for the delay, or streching the rubber band?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

PROGRAMMING NOTE: A weekend conference room update to the ilinc software is locking out XP systems. An ilinc Sr. Manager advises deleting all instances of previous ilinc and Mitel versions before trying log-in. I tried this on an XP-loaded machine (files I found are listed below*) but without success. We won”t have additional tech support until  mid-morning. Meanwhile…

CLICK HERE FOR A SEPARATE ENTRY IF ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTY

Files to remove: ilinc-web-services*, join-session*, mitel*
(Add or) Remove programs: ilinc, Mitel
Start menu: ilinc, Mitel:

Through the prior close…
Friday”s noon hour pierced Thursday”s high by a single tick, touching the afternoon”s 2114.75 bias-up signal as resistance. Otherwise, it was an inside day, contained entirely within Thursday”s range. Actually, within Thursday afternoon”s range, optimistically avoiding a dip back under the prior highs that Thursday morning”s surge exceeded. That was a breakout, and Friday”s inside day didn”t confirm it, despite being a new trend high close.. The entire session ranged in positive territory without extending higher, which is “ineffectual optimism.”

Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging 1 point either way around 2112.75 suddenly surged to 2116.50 into Europe”s opens, presumably on expectation of China doing a round of QE. Europe”s concerns over Grexit immediately drove price down sharply to 2108.50. A relentless retracement recovered it all to now retest the initial high up to 2118.00.

If, then…
Friday”s complacency after Thursday”s breakout was a sign of things to come, but not necessarily a sell signal. The condition tells us to monitor for the next probe of fresh highs. Having reserved its energy Friday, will Monday compensate for the delay with a new breakout close, or will an intraday probe of fresh highs only stretch the rubber band to be reversed and to close negative. Either resolution could extend into Wednesday morning ahead of that afternoon”s FOMC policy statement.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2113.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2110.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.