The First Trade… Corrective bounce leaving little on the table.
[MY APOLOGIES FOR THE TARDINESS OF THIS POST…]
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Monday in extreme sentiment tried to behave like a sentiment extreme, rallying through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But that works only when testing a prior low, as support, and not when opening beyond the range. Testing the morning”s 2082.25 bias-down target as resistance sent price relentlessly down 35 points to 2047.25, probing Sunday night”s low by 7 points, while testing and retesting the next lower objective of 2048.25 as RSIs diverged positively.
Overnight action”s new info…
.Firming up to 2058.00-2059.00 through Europe”s opens had dipped back down to 2053.00, when a surge broke sharply higher to 2069.00. Its 10-point reaction down to attack 2059.00 is trying to recover.
If, then…
Extending the plunge at this morning”s open was not assured. No new traction was gained Monday afternoon and downside objectives held their tests. Those conditions were true at Friday”s close, too, but Monday”s plunge was the product of new sponsorship. There being no new sponsorship overnight, the downleg was vulnerable to correcting back up. If counter-trend sponsorship has been attracted, then the correction will recover relevant levels through relevant timing windows. Maintaining a gap up back above yesterday afternoon”s ~2061.00 high, for example, could form a “session-long rally.” But too much higher could find the overnight bounce has already satisfied the counter-trend sponsorship. An example of that would be to hold a test of a prior timing window”s range — like yesterday morning”s 2068.50 low. Exceeding any relevant level tested during the open would help to reverse the trend back up today. Failing that would extend the plunge this morning.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2059.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Back under 2054.00 through 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2053.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.