The First Trade… Crouching tiger?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
or HERE for the replacement test (and for XP)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s test and retest of the morning”s 2119.75 bias-up target was supported by its 2113.75 bias-up signal. The bias-up environment was then spent chipping away at that support. That prepped the afternoon for a drop to 2100.25, testing the ~2103.25 “lower prior highs” which had finally broken Thursday. Its reaction held 2104.25-2105.00 resistance ahead of AAPL”s post-close earnings.

Overnight action”s new info…
Retesting a breakout point is common before resuming the breakout. But it was the wrong timing window to expect it to hold. A failure from bouncing to 2104.25-2105.00 was likely. And despite AAPL”s pop on earnings, Monday”s 2100.25 low attracted price back down. Attacks on it stopped optimistically short — which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective — before inevitably breaking lower. This morning”s 2095.25 bias-down target was just touched, reacting up almost 3 points from there.

If, then…
Recall that 2095.25 is the upper-end of a 5-point support range, which had been instrumental during the prior two weeks. The timing of its recoveries helped us to maintain confidence in new highs throughout continued intraday and overnight dips/plunges. Now comes another test, under the guise of correcting a breakout, during an otherwise irrelevant timing window. Avoiding bias-down, let alone recovering positive territory through the open, could launch a powerful intraday rally. That would require overcoming a tendency for extending the reaction from Monday”s opening sentiment extreme into Wednesday morning. So, bias-down can still be renewed.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2093.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2095.25 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2103.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2100.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.