The First Trade… Diametric opinions intact.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap down to the recent range”s lower-end ranged choppily sideways, as participation thinned ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Bounces back to unchanged at 2124.25 held two tests as resistance, with no traction gained either way.

Overnight action”s new info…
Even the holiday”s thinner market environment has shown no shortage of sentiment. Three dips and three bounces, each of significance. Sunday night”s opening bounce feel from 2127.00 to 2118.50 early Monday morning, before bouncing again to 2126.00. Its reaction down Monday evening attacked Sunday night”s low before bouncing to 2124.50 into Europe”s opens. That reacted down the hardest, testing this morning”s 2115.75 bias-down target. Now its reaction up is testing this morning”s 2122.50 bias-down signal as resistance.

If, then…
The likeliest path higher would isolate a sell-off in the Globex-only timing window, to be recovered already into the open. That was my comment Monday morning before Sunday night”s drop had been recovered fully. I did also note that Sunday night”s 2118.50 low could be retested, but last night”s attack to within 2 ticks would have sufficed. The 9-point plunge to 2115.25 may be starting to damage support. We”ll still give the upside every benefit of the doubt so long as bias-down doesn”t trigger, and more so if the open is back in positive territory. But even the plunge low can be probed today if buyers aren”t back in control very soon.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2122.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2118.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.