The First Trade… Expiration, in more ways than one.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night had extended Tuesday’s rally by probing above the 2082.50 intraday high up to 2089.25. That was retraced entirely before the open, but never actually reversed down — that is, Thursday’s entire session ranged choppily around Wednesday’s 2080.50 close, between 2075.50-2083.50. Having held a test of the morning’s bias-up signal, an offsetting test of its 2072.00 bias-down signal was put into play, not invalidated, and left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday night’s weak open didn’t extend down, and instead firmed. That eventually became an aggressive surge attacking 2086.00 into Europe’s opens. Perhaps that was a little too aggressive, as it was retraced entirely back down to Thursday’s 2078.00 cash session close. Too aggressive, or perhaps only too early, as all but 1 tick of the surge has been recovered.

If, then…
Yesterday’s weak open helped to confirm that Thursday’s close had held prior highs, and did not break them. WedEX’s afternoon influence is passively bearish, so while momentum may have peaked, intraday noise can still probe higher temporarily. Whether attacking Thursday night’s high up to 2088.00, or probing it up to 2092.00, sliding or drifting lower into the weekend is likely. An exception would be for the signal to invert, which would begin by gapping open beyond a prior extreme — I’ll update on that later this morning.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2084.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2080.50 would be less likely to trigger bias-up.