The First Trade… Extending through the weekend.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon”s 2090.00 high essentially marginalized sellers for the day. Two tests of the 2095.25 renewed bias-up target were reacted down to test and retest 2088.00. But the rally resumed into the afternoon, extending to 2102.50. Only one timing window did not probe above its prior timing window, like a session-long decline.
Overnight action”s new info…
Looking at the market”s chart, you might think Greek headlines are promising, or that there aren”t any at all. Or the same for China. Price action was stoic, ranging narrowly between 2099.00-2102.00. Actually, their news isn”t by any means disastrous, but definitely on the negative side. Apparently, price just wanted to probe higher.A blip-down to 2098.00 at Europe”s opens was soon reversed through the range”s upper-end, to fresh highs now attacking 2108.00.
If, then…
2108.00 is retesting Wednesday”s highs. That was the inside day, which had gapped down into Tuesday morning”s range, which was that steep, deep temporary sell-off. Recovering to Wednesday”s highs is certainly not bearish, but its price still represents near-term resistance. A lot of energy is being expended just to test it. Meanwhile, gapping up is by definition extreme sentiment, and greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme (recall last Monday”s gap up). This morning”s bias-up target is still a couple of points higher, which is near enough to contribute to resistance. Resistance may yet hold and reverse the morning”s momentum back down. But extending higher just a little more could make the difference for extending much higher.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2109.50 bias-up target, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open back under 2099.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.