The First Trade… Fallen, but trying to get back up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
After having trended down into Friday”s close, Monday”s open formed a “session-long rally” setup by gapping up above Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 high. The minimum objective to retest last Thursday”s high was fulfilled by a late-morning probe above it around 2121.00. That was a likely spot for correcting, and the noon hour attacked 2112.00. Although a “session-long rally” normally would resume rallying, Tuesday afternoon only ranged choppily sideways.

Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s post-close dip to a fresh low attacking 2111.25 had reacted back up aggressively. That extended through the Globex open, attacking 2121.00 to within 2 ticks. Its 61.8% retracement down to 2115.00 is now retesting 2117.50.

If, then…
Did yesterday”s “session-long rally” fall and can”t get up, or is it just resting? Probably resting, since the morning”s rally didn”t invert during the afternoon. More so now, since overnight action has only firmed. But the next trending attempt is caught between two influences. One is that the rest can”t continue indefinitely without launching at least a temporary intraday drop. The other influence is that not yet resuming the rally pre-open would undermine a later attempt. So, gapping up — preferably above 2121.00 or quickly through it — would be credible for extending higher. But not gapping up would make any post-open sell-off likely to extend down.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2118.50-2119.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, and likely at least to test the 2121.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2122.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2121.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2112.00 would be likely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down at 10:15.