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The First Trade… Focusing on more Greece talks. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade… Focusing on more Greece talks.

By Rod David | June 25, 2015 - 7:34 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s first hour had held the critical 2113.50 level, but a late surge from there only stretched the rubber band so it could snap back down. Hard. A sell signal triggered under 2112.75 and every bounce limit held as every timing window trended down on the way to 2101.50. Oversold RSIs during the afternoon bias environment waited for a bounce to stretch the rubber band again, snapping back down through the close to test 2099.25 support.

Overnight action”s new info…
The Globex open immediately began rallying into a 2102.00-2104.50 range while awaiting Europe”s opens. That resumed the rally, which eventually surged for its last 5-6 points up to 2112.75. Its reaction down to 2105.00 tried to resume the rally on a very favorable Greece headline. That stopped short of a fresh high when a customarily contradictory headline followed it. The headlines have only gotten worse, but so far the range is holding.

If, then…
Actually, the attempt to resume rallying stopped pessimistically short of touching the 2112.75 high. And that high had stopped pessimistically short of touching the critical 2113.50 level. Monday and Tuesday”s lows at or above 2112.00 were touched, so relevant resistance has been touched. If a rally can”t exploit having chipped away at resistance, the resolution could be that much more bearish. And since yesterday”s break under Monday and Tuesday”s lows signaled a drop underway through Friday morning, gapping up back above the prior lows could reject that setup and put into play new highs.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2107.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2105.75 bias-up signal at the 10:15 bias timing window 30 minutes later. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2113.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2110.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Posted in S&P, The First Trade