The First Trade… Fool me once, or second time’s a charm?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s gap up tested 2068.00, above Wednesday”s highs and almost 30 points above Wednesday”s close. The balance of the session trended down as the potential session-long rally setup inverted. A last-minute 10-point plunge to 2039.50 nearly filled the gap back to Wednesday”s close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action”s new info…
Globex was greeted by favorable developments from Greece, essentially a proposal that seemed to have a chance. The open gapped up 4 points and spiked up another 10 points, and eventually firmed to attack 2062.00. The balance of the night has trended higher, and just touched 2068.50 momentarily.

If, then…
Yesterday”s was well within proximity to Tuesday”s 2035.00 low, which requires a retest. An overnight setup would have made that vulnerable to recovering before the open. That would have greeted the post-close news from a stronger position. Not that its immediate and overnight reactions would have been bigger. But is it only from being oversold, or is it actually durable past this morning? As we saw yesterday, maintaining the reaction above relevant levels through relevant timing windows will signal whether the reaction is extending, or melting away. This being a Friday, the open and the bias windows will be very consequential. As with all single-minded overnight trending, the opening 15 minutes of volatility can answer whether or not new sponsorship has been attracted.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2065.75 would start to suggest the overnight rally had attracted intraday sponsorship. Exiting the open under 2059.25 would suggest not, and back under 2057.25 would start to signal that sellers were attracted.