The First Trade… Getting its sea legs back.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Testing the decline”s 2105.50 target overnight had fulfilled a lot of selling pressure. Probing lower pre-open to the targets”s noise range down to 2103.00 only stretched the rubber band so Wednesday”s open could surge to 2112.00. Triggering a “synthetic bias-up” didn”t prevent returning back down to 2103.00-2105.50. Its next bounce failed, too, right after buyers had barely gained traction. Firming into the close recovered 2105.50 by a couple of points.

Overnight action”s new info…
The late firming extended higher through the Globex open to eventually test 2113.50. It was retested at Europe”s opens, but held. Price action since then has trended back down, mot recently testing 2108.50 and reacting up 2-1/2 points.

If, then…
Buyers gaining traction yesterday afternoon was confirmed by the higher recovery after dipping back down to 2103.00-2105.50. Having gained traction, gapping up is not necessary to resume the rally this morning. But that traction must be exploited this morning by trending up. And gapping down would undermine that traction, potentially also resuming the decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2112.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2111.0 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2108.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2103.00 would be likely to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal.