The First Trade… Greece headline battle outdoes itself. Bravo.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday was reversed down immediately. The overnight rally, to 2069.00 was retraced into the noon hour, piercing Monday”s 2047.50 low. The afternoon”s no-bias rally to 2066.00 retraced to 2062.00 as was required, and even deeper down to 2052.50 by the cash session close. Spiking down into the futures close touched 2049.75. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, firming overnight evolved into a rally. A consolidation up to 2066.00 got welcome news from reports that Greece has offered significant concessions, triggering a surge to test and retest 2077.25. That has been retraced to attack 2069.00, amid reports that Germany isn”t talking while Greece”s referendum remains scheduled, and ahead of a live television address by Greece”s Prime Minister.
If, then…
The cycles of rally and retracement were becoming shorter and shallower, compressing price to the point of almost literally exploding in one direction or the other. Breaking higher first is not bullish for the bigger picture. It leaves “unfinished business below” that will require eventual retest, while neutralizing the overbought RSIs” attraction above that otherwise would suggest sellers were weak-handed. Nevertheless for the near-term, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon”s high could form a “session-long rally” setup. Could. But not maintaining the gap up would be as bearish as the setup could have been bearish, probably reversing to new lows intraday.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45above 2068.75-2070.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2065.75 bias-up target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2059.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.50 bias-up signal at 10:15, probably putting into play an offsetting test of the 2050.75 bias-down signal.