The First Trade… Greece-headline / ping-poing match resumes.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Retracing Wednesday night”s rally to 2112.75 into Thursday”s open didn”t prevent gapping up above Wednesday afternoon”s 2105.50 high. But it wasn”t maintained, which turned a potential “session-long rally” setup into a “session-long decline.” The very last minutes probed fresh lows down to 2092.00.

Overnight action”s new info…
Fresh lows were probed down to 2090.50 while China”s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) resumed plunging. That was relatively shallow (as have been all other reactions to SHCOMP plunges, ever since the first reaction was realized not to have any bearing on western valuations). It was easily recovered back above 2092.00 ahead of Europe”s opens, but only to range sideways up to 2095.00. Very recently, Greece headlines suggesting an offer by creditors have triggered a rally now testing yesterday”s last hour high at 2098.50.

If, then…
Is this pre-open rally any more durable than yesterday”s? Two contextual signals suggest not. First, session-longs like yesterday”s session-long decline tend to resume their influence through the following morning. Second, Wednesday morning”s break already triggered a downleg projected to last through Friday morning. Either influence can be negated by triggering bias-up. Otherwise, fresh lows this morning remain likely.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2096.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Touching 2099.25 during the open would require its recovery, too. Exiting the open under 2094.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.