The First Trade… Guess it wasn’t just a bad dream.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s session had tested 2063.00-2064.00 resistance early, holding there through the close while awaiting Friday morning”s Employment Situation report. It was a big miss, driving stocks down sharply with an early close just minutes away. Not that that the reaction wasn”t justified, as the Dollar fell sharply, too. But the impending illiquidity could only exacerbate matters. And oversold RSIs at Wednesday”s post-open low had required its retest, to at least 2039.00, which held Friday”s Globex close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open surged to attack 2047.00. A dip back to 2039.00 was recovered to attack 2048.00. All of which is too shallow to suggest that Friday”s drop was just an anomaly. Relatively narrow ranging since then between 2043.00-2047.00 is now getting choppier — the past hour has surged to the range”s upper-end, and back down to its lower-end.

If, then…
Despite Friday”s plunge, gapping down Monday from Thursday”s close is extreme sentiment, and vulnerable to being a sentiment extreme. Opening under 2048.00 won”t be impossible to recover later, just difficult. That”s the bias-up signal, and recovering its 2054.50 bias-up target would be the earliest suggestion that Friday”s plunge was only temporary. And ended. Recovering from under Friday”s low would be possible, too, but less so if not already recovering into the bias environment”s exit.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2037.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2039.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2053.00 would be likely to trigger the 2048.00 bias-up signal.