The First Trade… Keeping its head down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday and extending higher to 1991.00 had indicated that strong-handed buyers were taking control after Tuesday’s corrective session. That didn’t prevent the open’s rally from being retraced back to unchanged at 1967.50, but it did indicate that action was counter-trend. In fact, consolidating after filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close was followed by another rally leg back into the morning’s highs. Another reaction down retraced the afternoon’s no-bias trending, and was then recovered into the close, fulfilling an outstanding target at 1988.75.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s late recovery has not extended higher. Instead, yesterday’s no-bias trending was retraced again, and then lower to 1971.00. Now another bounce is testing 1982.00.

If, then…
Buyers didn’t gain traction for yesterday’s efforts, so extending the rally this morning requires gapping up. At least, a durable rally requires gapping up. Probing positive territory from a weaker open could still be productive before failing — there are a lot of news and Fed speakers scheduled, and FOMC Minutes this afternoon. Gapping up and extending higher could retest the FOMC high today or tomorrow. As for gapping down, there is no greater likelihood between ranging narrowly or trending down.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1981.00-1982.00 will likely avoid triggering the 1979.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1977.00 would likely trigger bias-down.