The First Trade… Live by the sword…

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…

An amazing swing Tuesday overcame Monday night”s 17-point rally to 2078.00. Dropping 43 points from there into the morning”s 2035.00 bias environment low had already reflected an extraordinary paradigm shift. Then another shift rallied 41 points into the close. The latter sponsorship was more influential, producing its move entirely intraday. No unfinished business was left outstanding below, but buyers didn”t gain traction for the effort, and the recovery stopped short of closing above a relevant level.

Overnight action”s new info…
The primary thrust of my review of Tuesday afternoon”s recovery was that despite it being inspirational, not closing above a relevant high was cautionary. Expending so much energy without gaining traction for the effort is always likelier to retrace. In fact, Globex began slipping at the open, and extended the drop to 31 points at 2042.25 through Europe”s opens. That has been retraced back up through the 2051.00 level that had greeted Europe”s opens, to now attack 2063.75.

If, then…
Not gaining traction for expended energy is always vulnerable to retracement. Yesterday afternoon”s rally didn”t extend above relevant levels at relevant times. Consequently, it has fallen back to the last low before noon yesterday, literally retracing all of yesterday afternoon”s recovery. So, now the question is whether this drop will gain traction for its effort. Gapping down under yesterday”s 2053.75 bias environment low could form a “session-long decline,” but the current bounce is probing back above that level — to the resistance of this morning”s 2062.50 bias-down target. Unless the open were gapping up into positive territory, this morning”s most bullish scenario may be only to range back to unchanged. Gapping down too deeply could say goodbye to the past week”s range.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2058.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2063.25 would be likely to hold above the bias-down target to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2071.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal.