The First Trade… No deal is good deal?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s expiration session trended down through its opening 15 minutes, setting the session”s tone. Its gap open down to the 2111.00 area, broke lower into the noon hour, and trended down through the close. Wednesday”s air pocket above 2100.00 to above 2105.00 was retraced. A late sell signal triggered under 2103.50 and extended quickly to the afternoon”s lowest calculable target at 2097.25. The late bullish WedEX either inverted or invalidated.
Overnight action”s new info…
Despite no Greece deal over the weekend, Sunday night”s open gapped back up to 2103.50. Consolidating narrowly held Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 prior high. Rallying resumed before Europe”s opens, and extended to 2118.00. RSIs diverged negatively there and now a pullback is testing 2111.75 by a couple of ticks, taking RSIs oversold.
If, then…
The corrective bounce limit back to Thursday”s high is 2114.75-2116.25. Recovering it post-open would target a retest Thursday”s prior high. That happens to be only 3 points higher at 2119.25 in this pattern, and its room for noise isn”t much higher. But its recovery would imply much more than that, resuming last week”s rally targeting new highs. Having tested 2114.75-2116.25, reversing down from here would be credible for launching a new downleg triggered back under 2106.00 and targeting a retest last week”s lows under 2063.00. Two potential bullish setups this morning are the “session-long rally” which rejects the prior afternoon”s downtrending by gapping up above the prior afternoon”s high, and a more powerful rejection of Friday”s entire session by gapping up above its session highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2111.75 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2109.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal.