The First Trade… Not beat-skipping
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Plunging on Friday’s pre-open payrolls report was sponsored by strong hands. We know this because the open maintained a gap down under Thursday afternoon’s 1891.50 low to 1883.00. But the “session-long decline” setup it had triggered was never any more productive before inverting through the bias environment’s exit. The balance of the session fulfilled that inversion above and beyond its minimum requirement — not only filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 1913.50 close, but also retracing the pre-open plunge’s 1928.50 origin, and then probing even higher to attack 1944.00. Buyers gained traction thanks to trending up through the 3:10-3:20 window to confirm the bias environment having been exited above the noon hour’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
The prior session ended by testing 1942.00 resistance, but Sunday night’s initial weakness held 1937.00 while consolidating into midnight. A break higher was retraced back into the consolidation, and then high, now attacking 1958.00.
If, then…
Closing above the 1942.00 resistance would have put into play the next higher objective at 1960.00. Overnight action is posturing the open to potentially satisfy it. Like closing at an objective, the next timing window can extend higher if the reaction is limited in both duration and depth. But gapping up without an interim pullback from having closed AT an objective is difficult to extend higher, and at least a pullback is likelier. Especially on Mondays, when greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. So, extending higher this morning depends upon extending higher with hardly any hesitation.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1953.00 would be likely also to maintain the recovery above the 1948.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.