The First Trade… Not for lack of trying.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s correction from testing its 2103.00 bias-up signal was exacerbated by the afternoon’s incident in California. An extra downleg originated during the afternoon’s no-bias environment down to 2075.00. That left “unfinished business above” at the untriggered 2091.00 bias-down signal, if not also its 2094.50 1:20 print. A couple of recovery attempts formed from RSIs diverging positively, but they couldn’t get past 2084.00 as it had become too late to recover.

Overnight action’s new info…
2084.00 was tested and retested until Europe’s opens triggered a break higher. Unfinished business above at 2091.00 was soon attacked to within 3 ticks. Its consolidation around 2088.00 has resolved up optimistically to 2095.25 ahead of this morning’s ECB policy statement (and Draghi’s press conference).

If, then…
Closing yesterday above 2088.00 was required for the rally’s resumption to remain likely today. The exacerbated decline came late enough to inhibit a recovery from attracting sponsorship. So, by proxy, this morning’s open can compensate for the delay by opening above the last relative high, That’s 2095.25, which has been touched. So, the open is certainly in position to resume the rally. The most bullish scenario if NOT extending higher through the open would be to spend the morning backing-and-filling to test 2084.50 as support.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.25 would be likely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target is 2095.25, and exiting the open above 2099.00 would be likely to renew it, too. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15.