The First Trade… Not for lack of trying.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Another attempt to recover 2118.00 at the open failed Friday, more substantially than any prior recovery attempt there. Just returning to 2112.00 had signaled a bigger reversal underway, which quickly extended down to 2102.25. Bouncing to 2115.00 on a Greece headline was largely retraced, albeit stopping optimistically short of actually touching the low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Firming Sunday night extended quietly back up to 2114.00 before being reversed sharply back down to 2104.00. A Symmetrical Triangle formed there, and then an hour ago it launched a 5-point surge to 2110.75 (reacting to a Greece headline, of course). That was retraced almost as quickly, now hovering above 2104.00.

If, then…
The first breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle is often false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. Reversing the hour-old failed 5-point surge can measure another 8 or 16 points. Either would be part of fulfilling the probe under last week”s 2096.00 low by 2-3 points. This reversal must be influential during the opening 15 minutes, or else another bounce to 2114.00-2115.00 would be likelier.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.