The First Trade… Opening at a prior low’s support.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Invalidating Wednesday morning”s no-bias was easily done by a 13-point plunge from 2080.00 into the noon hour. That doubled through the close to 2052.25, touching the week-old low that had printed just minutes before the FOMC event.

Overnight action”s new info…
2052.25 tried its best to hold, but there was no buying effort. Support finally gave way an hour before Europe”s opens, dropping relentlessly to within 1-2 ticks of the last relative low at 2033.25. The reaction up from there has reached 2042.00, still down double-digits from yesterday”s close.

If, then…
Middle East war causing higher Crude Oil is the latest basket of straw on the market camel”s back. Being  this morning”s bias-down target, 2042.00 will act as resistance when tested from below. Probing above it and holding as support through 10:15 would at least avoid renewing the bias-down signal. But the morning”s bias environment would still be bias-down. If a temporary rally like yesterday afternoon”s bias environment is possible, its best chance is probably from a quick probe under the 2033.25 low. Already bouncing back above 2045.00 at the open could follow-through initially, but still not with any confidence of avoiding a later downdraft.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2045.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal, and likelier to hold the 2042.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2042.00 bias-down target.