The First Trade… Pent-up pressure, or head-fake?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday morning”s no-bias almost guaranteed signaling no-bias that afternoon. And signaling no-bias that afternoon almost guaranteed ranging narrowly through the close. Which is how the session did play out, but for a couple of minor blips up to the morning”s 2054.75 high around Yellen”s pre-close speech.

Overnight action”s new info…
Like Friday afternoon, Sunday night”s opening blip-up was retraced back into the range. But its dip to 2047.25 reversed back up to fresh highs at 2061.50 before consolidating. Eventually surging to 2069.00 on China rate-cut rumors has been retraced to 2061.00.

If, then…
Friday”s session should be treated as a non-event. And since Thursday afternoon”s buyers and sellers both failed to gain traction for their efforts, gapping open is the only reliable path to trending this morning. Gapping beyond the range of Friday”s inside day won”t be enough — the gap must exceed Thursday”s extremes. That”s especially important if Thursday”s extreme is touched during the open. So, maintaining a gap up above Thursday”s 2058.75 high would be likely to trend in that direction (possibly forming a session-long rally setup), but not maintaining the gap above Thursday”s high could suddenly become bearish.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.75 would be likely to trigger the 2057.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2067.00 would be likely to exceed the 2064.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.