The First Trade… Pins and needles giving way to daggers.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s retest of Monday’s 2031.50 high had quickly peaked and reversed down on the way to 2020.50. A pre-open retest of 2031.50 wasn’t rejected immediately, but much more substantially. The open’s drop found support upon testing 2020.50 but its next test slid to 2013.00. Fresh lows into and out of the close slid to 2007.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Optimism and apprehension? Firming early back up to the 2017.00 area peaked by midnight. With the ECB rate decision and Draghi speaking, price action since then has only ranged sideways back to 2012.50.

If, then…
The pattern since last Thursday afternoon’s 30-point rally to 2019.50 had only ranged sideways through Tuesday’s close, albeit biased upward. Tuesday night’s surge to 2034.25 was a fresh high for the range, and Wednesday afternoon’s 2007.50 was a fresh low for the range. Much of the selling was probably defensive posturing ahead of this morning’s ECB/Draghi events. So, was it prescient that the events would spur even more dramatic selling, or has that been discounted so much that a rally back to the upper-end comes next? We’ll know a lot more very soon. But a path back to the highs is still possible if the open isn’t already duplicating yesterday’s slides.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2016.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2013.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2019.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2025.50. Exiting the open under 2003.50 would be likely to trigger the 2005.75 bias-down signal.