The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… 10/4: Over, and out?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up above Tuesday’s 2936.00 highs was rewarded by extending to within 2 ticks of the morning’s 2945.25 renewed bias-up target calculation. A structural point is also outstanding there, which a 2-3 tick proximity doesn’t neutralize. But the reaction down to 2936.00 recovered only to 2942.00. And for a second consecutive session, the afternoon bias environment’s exit inverted the pattern’s likelier break higher by breaking lower. Sharply lower, 16 points down to 2925.50. Closing at or above 2928.00-2930.00 prevented sellers from gaining traction, but closing under 2936.00 prevented resuming upside momentum. No unfinished business was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late bounce from 2925.50 up to 2928.00-2930.00 was retraced immediately into the Globex open, back down to Tuesday afternoon’s 2924.00 low. Pauses have been brief all the way down to 2913.25 through Europe’s opens. Its retest has bounced up to 2922.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is the overnight action a glimpse of things to come? It may be reducing selling pressure to give buying pressure a better chance intraday. Extending yesterday afternoon’s reversal had room down to the 2919.00 area, while still being within the bottoming pattern, which is being tested now. But it’s being tested from below, from probing under 2915.50, whose post-open break would signal a much deeper drop underway. More so, a much deeper drop would likely begin by gapping down through 2915.50 and collapsing through the morning, targeting 2901.00 and lower. Opening back above Monday’s 2922.50 low would keep alive Tuesday’s Isolation setup that hasn’t yet retraced the 2-week old 2946.25 high, but there would still be plenty of challenges above to overcome before signaling the trend has reversed back up. One of those challenges being in-play right here, right now, if this overnight bounce attacking Monday’s 2922.50 low holds its resistance instead of extending higher through it.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2915.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2918.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2920.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2925.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2927.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.