The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A little firmer. Maybe too little.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally had probed above Friday’s  2692.00 high up to 2700.50, easily postured to isolate Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism.” But Monday’s open developed around 2692.00 instead of trending above it, creating a position of weakness. That didn’t prevent probing higher to 2707.00, but any probe higher would be doomed to failure. And the probe to 2707.00 failed, to put it mildly, plunging 104 points to the afternoon’s 2603.00 low. The last 15 minutes reacted up 40 points to 2643.00. Oversold RSIs left outstanding at the low require an eventual retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex has been spent essentially exclusively in positive territory. Hope literally springs eternal. The late bounce waited to resume for Asia’s opens, and extended higher through midnight to test 2664.00. Brief hovering soon began reversing back down to unchanged at 2643.00. Natural support reacted back up to 2656.50, which is now struggling to maintain, let alone to extend higher.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday afternoon’s sellers gained traction for their efforts through the final hour’s entry. There’s no threat to invalidate it, other than the difficulty of probing yesterday’s lows this morning from currently being 50 points higher. None of which prevents a bearish morning influence. Having spent the session essentially exclusively in positive territory, exiting the open back under its earlier 2636.25 low could trigger a sort of Globex-flip — rejecting the overnight productivity without probing the intraday high. Disappointment with not extending yesterday’s late bounce could evolve quickly into another plunge. If not already greeting the open back under 2636.25, then rallying instead through the open could spring more hope and delay the inevitable again, always eager to hand out more rope.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2658.50 would be likely to trigger the 2652.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2669.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2667.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2636.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.