The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Air pocket, right on schedule, right on target.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s gap down and probe under Friday’s 2756.50 low was recovered to greet Monday’s open having recovered positive territory up to 2780.50. The bearish WedEX greeted the recovery there, too, producing a 31-point side through the first hour, attacking the 2749.75 overnight low to within 1 point. This destroyed the overnight recovery’s Isolation setup, meaning that its buyers had failed to gain traction for their efforts, and also meaning that the market couldn’t support a bullish setup. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower, albeit more flat than lower, and choppily down to 2757.00. The pattern remained vulnerable to extending the decline, at whatever pace and slope.
Overnight action’s new info…
A timid Globex open soon justified its anxiousness by collapsing to 2738.00. Trending down relentlessly extended to 2731.00 by midnight and recently attacked 2714.00. Its reaction is testing 2722.00 as resistance, where fresh overnight lows (at the time) had greeted Europe’s opens.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The recent low’s failed Ascending Triangle had bottomed by attacking 2712.00, requiring its eventual retest. The pattern’s false break higher had failed from the lower of its likely objectives at 2819.50-2823.00. Its retracement back into the Triangle under 2779.00 could have launched a bigger bounce than to test 2800.00, but its 61.8% retracement of the first downleg has launched the next downleg. And the Triangle’s support consists only of flimsy “prior lows” and no more “lower prior highs,” creating an air pocket if retested. Last night’s relentless slide through the pattern is an example of that air pocket. Still, the prior lows could have offered temporary obligatory bounces if tested intraday, and gapping down under them can inhibit new sellers from reinforcing the trend. Also, relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to attracting counter-trend sponsorship at the open. So, the opening 15 minutes of volatility could define the next 30-40 point move’s direction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2737.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2746.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.