The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… AND A LAST REMINDER.
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens through Friday morning. Market Tour and First Trade will be recorded and sent, but the afternoon Bias Parameters may be delayed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
“Through the prior close” tells half the story of yesterday’s session, and also all of it. PART ONE: Thursday’s 22-point gap up from Wednesday’s 2657.75 cash session close was retraced relatively little down to 2668.00 before extending higher. And higher, and higher — testing 2723.50 through the afternoon bias environment exit, and retesting it through the proxy window. The afternoon’s fresh highs were a bias-down rally that was doomed to failure, but could have extended the detour another 12 points higher. Eventually, the reaction down was triggered under 2715.50, but its timing was too late to rely on being more than brief and/or shallow. At least, through the cash session close, which dipped to 2701.00, retracing 38.2% of the post-open rally. PART TWO: However, AMZN and then GOOG earnings reactions triggered a plunge to 2684.00 through the futures close, retracing 61.8% of the post-open rally.
Overnight action’s new info…
A brief consolidation resolved down sharply to 2668.00, retracing Thursday’s post-open dip. Lower lows into midnight touched 2657.00. Bouncing greeted Europe’s opens at 2777.50, but the reception was soft and then softer. Attacking the 2657.00 earlier lows soon gave way to new overnight lows at 2646.00. Its reaction is testing the 2657.00 earlier lows as resistance.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday afternoon’s rally gained traction through the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry. Which is invalidated closing or gapping under the bias environment 2693.00 low. The cash session held, but futures did not. Expending the energy to recover it through the open could be rewarded better than yesterday’s intraday rally. Or, else. Else being a couple of major disappointments reversing a major expending of buying pressure to attack a major prior low — all with Friday Factors bearing down. How ugly could this get if not reversing through the open, or if the morning doesn’t recover a brief probe under Wednesday’s lows? Majorly.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Being based on the prior session’s cash session close, this morning’s parameters are already antiquated. The next lower objective at 2654.00 is being tested, with room down to 2637.25 and 2632.00 before threatening 2595.00 and lower.