The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another overnight run.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2857.00 was overlapping Friday’s high, and it was under the 2860.00 overnight high. Restrained optimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but didn’t prevent a dip that filled the gap back to Friday’s 2851.75 close. Price never turned negative, and rallying into the noon hour’s entry attacked the open’s 2858.50 high. Ranging flat-to-higher finally probed the overnight high to attack 2861.00 before a Trump headline triggered a dip back to 2857.00. Hold-long was disqualified because the potential reward for gapping up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late reaction down extended through the Globex open, ultimately touching 2854.00 at its low. Monday’s 2858.25 close was recovered by midnight. Europe’s opens not falling apart encouraged firming just a little to 2860.00, and not falling apart from there resolved up to attack 2865.00. Complexity has developed above yesterday’s highs, creating a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires an eventual intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This morning’s open is indicated to be the open that yesterday could have been. Friday’s rally had peaked upon testing the prior week’s “higher prior lows” at 2854.00-2855.00. Extending higher without delay probably would have gapped up above that structure’s 2863.00 upper-end. It wasn’t the only path higher, but none of the others were taken yesterday, either — instead, the overnight and intraday highs held the structure’s 61.8% internal retracement. But now this morning’s open is currently probing 2863.00, with the added assistance of having fulfilled its overnight pullback limit at 2854.00. Meanwhile, “unfinished business” left outstanding at 2866.25 during that structure’s forming had assured us last week’s interim dip to 2803.00 was only temporary. Its test is likely today, with the next higher objectives being 2873.00 and potentially 2883.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2863.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2861.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.