The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another spike up retraced.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted back up at Monday afternoon’s 2811.25 high. Almost. A headline just minutes before the open triggered a spike up to 2818.50. Where the overnight bounce had threatened unconvincingly to gap up above 2811.25, unconvincingly, the spike up promised deceptively. Neither would qualify for triggering a “session-long rally” setup, and the spike up was retraced back down to the morning’s 2808.50 bias-up signal. Another surge developed into the noon hour up to 2825.00, but its resistance held, too, and the balance of the session drifted lower into the cash session close at 2817.00. Futures bounced to 2824.00. That included a late blip-down to 2813.75 in reaction to another headline.
Overnight action’s new info…
Just closing at or above 2817.00 Tuesday had kept sellers from regaining traction. A hold-long was avoided, but an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to AAPL’s earnings blipped-up to attack 2828.00. Price had dipped back under Tuesday’s high when news hit of new US tariffs against China. Spiking down pierced Tuesday’s late 2813.00 low by 2 points. Ranging choppily sideways overnight is now retesting 2813.00 as support.
If, then…
Retracing the post-close surge doesn’t yet equate to rejecting it. But exiting the open in negative territory could set a bearish tone ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Whatever its reaction, interim defensive posturing could repeat Monday’s test of 2801.50. And that only serves to chip away at support at this stage. Defensive posturing ahead of FOMC could be accomplished by a shallower dip, but there’s a lot of time before then, and still a lot of news. Extending higher through Wednesday’s open would all but confirm one more upleg is underway, targeting 2873.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2811.00 would be likely to trigger the 2813.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2817.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2820.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2823.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.