The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square-one.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s satisfied buying pressure and subsequent inertia had made a pullback likely. It also made the market vulnerable to overreacting to news. And news came after the close to trigger a 30-point plunge overnight to test 2766.00. Greeting Wednesday’s open 12 points higher eventually extended to attack 2788.00. But the balance of the morning retraced back down to the open, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. That included breaking lower during the very latest stage of the afternoon’s no-bias environment, which was almost too late to be considered no-bias trending. Its recovery cleared the way for resuming the decline, or else extending the recovery. Perhaps it was the CME’s outage that prevented both.
Overnight action’s new info…
The CME outage was resolved before the close, but the range persisted well into Globex. Surging before midnight up to 2784.50 ranged sideways even longer, into and out of Europe’s opens. A blip-down to 2778.50 snapped back up to touch yesterday’s 2787.75 high. And now it’s being probed up to 2791.00.
If, then…
The overnight resolution was likely to reveal the market’s intent, either gapping up above Wednesday afternoon’s 2782.50 high, or else breaking under the afternoon’s 2772.00 low. Gapping up is now indicated, and the scheduled pre-open reports probably don’t have the influence to change that trajectory. The risk of probing yesterday’s high post-open requires that it be maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Otherwise, rather than recovering yesterday’s high, failing to hold its post-open test could repeat yesterday’s reaction down — whether as a temporary dip into yesterday afternoon’s range, or to resume the decline. Having trended higher relentlessly overnight, attracting reinforcements through the open can extend the overnight trend, and not attracting reinforcements can kill it.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2788.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2785.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2780.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.