The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square-two.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late 18-point surge up to 2849.50 was retraced almost entirely overnight down to 2833.25. Thursday’s opening surge was also retraced , as were each of Thursday morning’s higher highs. Ultimately, it was an inside day, gaining no traction either way. But “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2848.75 bias objective. And attempts to reverse down repeatedly failed. Despite the entire session developing in negative territory, the burden of proof was left on sellers The 4-point differential between cash session and futures 2838.25-2842.50 closes was similar to Wednesday.
Overnight action’s new info…
There was a momentary 9-10 point knee-jerk reaction down and up at the close, triggered by AMZN’s own initial earnings confusion. But the Globex session has only trended up. Attacking yesterday’s 2846.50 high to within 2 ticks before Europe’s opens had reacted down to 2842.75. Later surging 4 points pierced yesterday’s high by 2 ticks has reacted back down to 2842.75, again.
If, then…
No decline was indicated by yesterday’s pattern, only the vulnerability if buyers weren’t retaking control overnight. But, have they? Relentless overnight trending doesn’t always attract intraday reinforcements. And stronger-handed counter-trend sponsorship isn’t necessary to reverse the overnight trend — that can happen simply by the overnight trend’s sponsorship exiting. The opening 15 minutes of volatility often lets us know either way. It isn’t necessary to neutralize the “unfinished business above” at 2848.75 before reversing down, but I’ll be reluctant to short otherwise. Not reversing down would next target 2873.00 and potentially 2883.00, while this leg also requires at least an eventual third higher close. Anxiousness and anticipation ahead of this morning’s GDP is surely inhibiting and influencing price action, so a clearer picture should be visible after its release.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2846.50 would be likely to trigger the 2844.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2840.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.