The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to yesterday’s lows.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The last session for the Dec contract as front-month was greeted optimistically, attacking the prior session’s highs. The renewed bias-up target was already being probed. Trending choppily but surely higher through the morning extended to within 3 ticks of the next likely target at 2687.00 (basis Dec, 2691.00 basis Mar). I had already warned that its test would push back on even the most bullish template, and the balance of the session tumbled. The likely pullback targets were the opening gap’s 38.2% and 61.8% proxies. The first gap-fill proxy at 2658.25/2662.25 was met in time to produce a 10-point bounce, which completed in time to collapse through the close, fulfilling the other gap-fill proxy at 2650.50/2654.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
The next lower target was met at the cash session close, and then probed by 4 points. Bouncing into midnight recovered to attack 2666.00/2670.00. Another surge greeted Europe’s opens at 2671.00/2675.00, where Wednesday’s late bounce had peaked. This peaked, too, trending back down since then to attack yesterday’s post-close lows down to 2647.50/2651.25.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Wednesday afternoon’s 2681.00/2685.00 bias-up signal doesn’t require being retested, but would be a strong attraction to another upleg. Last night’s failed bounce could have become that upleg, and now a retest of its peak could become that upleg. Regardless, any new upleg would have potential to resume the rally, especially so long as yesterday’s late lows hold any test through the open. Breaking lower would not necessarily produce a straight shot down, but its next major lower attraction would be 2624.00, for which there isn’t much bullish reason to revisit.
NOTE: Coverage rolls forward at the open to the Mar (H) 2019 contract, which trades at a 4-point premium to Dec (Z) 2018.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] BASIS MAR: Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2654.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2651.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.