The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Backing-off.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 2779.25 open immediately surged back to pierce the 2787.00 pre-open high by 3 ticks. And that was quickly retraced almost entirely back down to its 2773.50 pre-open low. So much for a correction. The balance of the session trended up relentlessly, and substantially, extending for a last-minute touch of 2815.00. Futures extended to 2817.50. It was the highest level in three weeks. Actually, the three-week old prior high that had resolved down into a two-week long decline. And unless rejected almost immediately Thursday, the next higher objective has been put into play in the 2850.00 area.

Overnight action’s new info…
Hovering up to the post-close highs through the Globex open was ratcheted down to what is this afternoon’s 2808.75 bias-down signal through Europe’s opens. And then price began falling. So far, only back down to 2802.00, which is still support for having been yesterday afternoon’s bias-up target. RSIs just diverged positively on its retest.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s pre-open 2787.00 high represented the maximum for still qualifying as only a correction of the last downleg from its 3-week old high. Other candidates for ending the correction were met during the past week, and although influential to price action, none ended or reversed the rally. Now comes the first candidate for qualifying as a correction of the entire decline from October’s highs. Its range begins at 2811.00 and extends to 2818.75, most heavily weighted just under 2813.00. Almost all of which was probed yesterday by a single leg without any complexity. This area’s influence can end the correction, or simply launch a brief pullback, both being considered as the rally didn’t extend any higher overnight. Gapping back down under the afternoon’s 2793.50 bias environment low would be credible. Otherwise, almost any shallower or later weakness Thursday would more likely be only backing-and-filling before resuming the rally. Regardless, we’ll give a benefit of the doubt to any trending that extends throughout the opening 15 minutes of volatility. We’ll also stop giving a benefit of the doubt to any trending that hasn’t broken support or resistance this morning ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2805.25 would be likely to trigger the 2808.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.