The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Big day, big prep.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying sharply Monday night had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” at 2853.00. It also allowed probing fresh highs without relying on intraday sponsorship, which had failed to maintain Monday morning’s highs. Gapping up to 2849.75 ranged choppily sideways until the bias environment came within view of lapsing, then surged 15 points to attack 2859.00 as noon began. Intraday sponsorship did it again, retracing the rally down to 2853.00, then collapsing to 2841.50 on a China trade headline. A bounce to 2852.00 was reversed to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to signal a more substantial drop forming. Right into the position-squaring window at 2829.00, bouncing back up to 2840.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Volatility is already alive, including a fresh low, and a wide reversal around unchanged. Tuesday’s late bounce had begun retracing back down immediately at the Globex open. The late low was retested by 1 point to 2828.00, essentially this morning’s bias-down signal. A bounce retraced 61.8% up to 2835.50 by midnight, where a consolidation resolved up and extended the bounce through Europe’s opens to 2842.50. That’s essentially this morning’s bias-up signal, and a probe into positive territory, and their resistance has reacted down to 2834.00, and looking at least a little lower.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
No “unfinished business” above, and two consecutive sessions of distribution ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, doesn’t prevent rallying. Whether ahead of the event in belief that yesterday’s drop was defensive enough, or in reaction to the event because another bullet is dodged. Regardless, the Fed — and all Central Banks — are in a controversial phase of trying to let rhetoric do their work, all creating a very opportunistic trading environment.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2830.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2828.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2842.25 bias-up signal.