The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Crossroads ahead.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 2793.00 opened the door to lower targets at 2781.00 and potentially 2764.00. Both were met, the latter to within 2 ticks as the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. That was the limit for a pullback, and any lower would have begun reversing the two-week old corrective rally — which was avoided already by delaying the test of 2793.00 until Friday. Surging as the bias environment lapsed came within 2 points of the 2793.00 open. Its resistance pushed back down to 2781.00 at the cash session close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Last gasp, or foreshadowing? Globex has told two stories, one of which developed entirely before midnight. Sunday night’s open had initially dipped several points to test what is this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal by several ticks. Its reaction rallied 21 points to within 1 tick of what is this morning’s 2795.50 bias-up target. Then its resistance started telling a different story, which has is back in negative territory and attacking the earlier low. If today’s cash session fulfills its potential to probe and then recover from negative territory (described below), then last night’s highs have established a likely objective.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Three or four important features from Friday tell us what is likely to be this morning’s template. Most prominent is Friday being the second consecutive session spent exclusively in negative territory, and then also that this persistent weakness had avoided retracing back under a prior low. This is a lot of selling pressure to expend without gaining traction for the effort. Also prominent is that Friday satisfied selling pressure at its targets, which were recovered on a closing basis. So, no lower objective was put into play. Two consecutive trending sessions tend to persist into the third, which tends to reverse the trending. So, whether it be an attack on fresh lows this morning or their probe, or a gap up that trends down, the burden of proof would be on sellers to maintain their break through a relevant timing window — and under a relevant level. Absorbing a morning sell-off should be rewarded by launching at least a retest of Wednesday’s highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2772.25 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2781.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.