The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Delayed, delayed FOMC reaction?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s delayed surge up to 2826.00 was doomed to failure, on two counts. It was no-bias trending after failng to trigger the morning’s 2823.25 bias-up signal. And it was unlikely to attract sponsorship ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC event. But its reaction down was less inhibited, exceeding its 2815.00 target by 61.8% down to 2808.00. That wasn’t necessarily sponsorship, but gravity revisiting the range’s other end. And it helped to soften the blow, as a brief dip to 2805.50 stopped 1 point short of its potential, and bounced back up to 2817.00. But the bounce was otherwise unimpressive, and the close dipped back down to 2808.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute dip was initially retraced back up to Wednesday afternoon’s bounce up to 2815.00. The afternoon’s low was being attacked by midnight. And probed ahead of Europe’s opens down to 2804.50. The trending has only extended — relentlessly — down to 2791.00.
If, then…
The overnight slide confirms yesterday’s conclusion: That the FOMC’s delayed knee-jerk reaction (is that a thing?) to within only 1 point of 2804.50, and the unimpressive bounce, had meant the morning’s slide didn’t discount the FOMC events enough. Or, that other events are still being discounted. Potential to retest 2801.50 remained alive. And there’s no bullish reason for that again, unless isolated. Overnight is one possibility, if the open has recovered back above yesterday’s 2805.50-2808.00 lows. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is the 2775.00-2781.00 area. And the next major observation is whether tomorrow’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, or weakness.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2801.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2804.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2807.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.