The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Detour, or early ending?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Closing above 2548.00-2555.00 Tuesday had put into play the next higher objective at 2606.00. And Tuesday’s session-long rally setup had suggested that Wednesday morning would probe higher. So, Wednesday’s 2583.00 gap up extended higher to test 2590.00. That didn’t prevent reacting down to headlines similar to Tuesday morning’s 34-point drop, but. by a relatively shallower 21 points to test the morning’s 2569.25 bias-down signal’s support. The drop was recovered to fresh highs through the noon hour up to 2595.50. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes reaction triggered a surge attacking 2597.00, before ranging choppily sideways back down to 2580.00. Unfinished business was left outstanding by oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2569.00 low requiring a retest, also similar to oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2547.25 low.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last dip to 2580.00 by Wednesday’s late choppy range was extended through the Globex open. Quickly sliding to 2565.00 neutralized the intraday low’s required retest. Its reaction up to 2574.50 was eventually resolved down through Europe’s opens to 2560.50. Bouncing back up to 2572.00 is now trying to hold above earlier 2565.00 low.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is the rally rolling over already? The recent string over several sessions of shallower and briefer pullbacks had suggested that optimism was expanding, and that a capitulative surge was nearing. Two consecutive closes above the 2548.00-2555.00 range had confirmed the rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00 is in-play. A little pullback was possible for having come so close to 2606.00 Wednesday. But last night’s drop is not a little pullback. It is threatening to open under the entirety of yesterday’s range. Retesting the 2548.00-2555.00 range at this stage of the pattern would only start chipping away at its support. Opening back above yesterday’s lows to form an Isolation setup, and preferably all the way back up into positive territory, is the optimal bullish path — if not the only one still available today.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2576.00 would be likely to trigger the 2579.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2566.00 would be likely to exceed the 2571.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.