The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Detour, or ranging?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up at 2614.75 blipped back down into Tuesday’s range before quickly extending higher to 2624.00. Just as quickly, Tuesday’s range attracted price back down to 2612.50. The choppy range persisted through the noon hour, before breaking higher to test 2626.00. Then Tuesday’s range attracted price back down one more time throughout the last 60-90 minutes. The drop reached only 2615.25 by the cash session close, qualifying as confirmation to Tuesday’s breakout session. Futures extended down to 2612.50. Bullish WedEX triggered.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s drop was initially consolidated through the Globex open, but soon resumed. Extending down eventually probed under “lower prior highs” to touch 2596.50 soon after Europe’s opens. A bounce tested 2606.00-2607.00, but that has reacted back down to attack 2600.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
We’ve got quite a conflict between two patterns. Wednesday afternoon’s dip back into Tuesday’s range held on just enough to confirm Tuesday’s breakout, which requires an eventual third higher close. Meanwhile, the abrupt intraday reversal at 2626.00 is exactly the topping behavior that I’ve been describing to expect at this stage of the rally. The eventual third higher close can be delayed by an intraday or multi-session detour, which was already indicated while Wednesday’s high was forming. The overnight drop could be part of the topping pattern, if this reaction down is recovered to a fresh high close in the next several days. Already topped and reversing down would require the breakout to fail, which the confirmation process is meant to avoid, and which is very rare. We’ll adopt that posture if WedEX inverts by proxy by today’s open gapping down back under the pre-breakout ~2598.00 “lower prior highs” — which the overnight drop is already testing. Otherwise, sellers not exploiting the overnight attempt would reinforce the upside attraction, helped by the bullish WedEX’s influence tomorrow afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2606.00 would be likely to trigger the 2609.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2612.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.