The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Don’t miss this one.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s open each were within ticks of 2780.00, separated by a relatively narrow overnight range. The range was maintained through the noon hour while price fluctuated between either end. The afternoon’s reaction to FOMC Minutes — the most volatile I’ve seen in years — probed each extreme momentarily to 2791.25 and 2773.75. Still the 2786.00-2787.00 close held within the range at its upper-end. The session left no “unfinished business” and contained no predictive value.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s final hour had ranged relatively narrowly, which persisted during Globex’s first several hours. Favorable trade talk headlines triggered a 13-point surge up to 2798.00, interrupted by a Running Correction. Narrow hovering at the high plateaued until breaking lower just after midnight, retracing the Running Correction’s lower quadrant at 2792.25. The surge’s first leg was eventually retraced by 61.8% back down to yesterday’s “lower prior highs” at 2787.00. Three hours ranging narrowly suddenly collapsed down to 2783.50 while I was warning of exactly that during the Market Tour recording. The overnight rally’s Running Correction was complex, creating a “new Globex trend extreme.”
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday had not decisively confirmed Friday’s close above 2751.00-2757.00. Wednesday didn’t reject it, either, and held Tuesday’s range. Rallying to 2798.00 would seem to settle the matter, and decisively, if developed intraday. But the overnight surge’s retracement back into yesterday’s range is threatening to isolate the 2798.00 test to the overnight, forming a bearish Isolation setup. That would reject the upside, because this instance has an added degree of difficulty from the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, often the same day, so overcoming its upside attraction would reflect even greater rejection. Look out below if the rejection triggers a Globex-flip, as well, which I describe in detail during the Market Tour recording. Having said all that, trying but failing to trigger an Isolation or Globex-flip setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.75 would be likely to trigger the 2790.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.