The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Eerily silent night.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was the first in several sessions not to be greeted optimistically. Probing fresh lows overnight down to 2476.50 had recovered to form the basis of an Isolation setup. Bouncing to 2418.00 came too early to attract necessary reinforcements, and the setup failed. Its resolution was as bearish as it would have been bullish, trending down sharply to 2441.00 before the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction up to 2490.00 held prior resistance, chopping wildly back down to 2456.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late wild, choppy range has essentially persisted overnight. The differential between Thursday’s cash session and futures closes was 20 points, from 2466.00 to 2586.00, as one of those wild chops snapped back up. Its snap-up continued until probing a fresh high attacking 2492.00, and then ranged sideways down to 2477.00. The relatively narrow ranging persisted until Europe’s opens, which launched a dip down to 2467.00. That’s also this morning’s bias-down signal, and RSIs diverged positively into its retest. But bouncing back up into the earlier range at 2480.50 has yet to extend any higher.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s lack of excessive or ineffectual optimism included rejecting one or two potentially bullish opening setups. Less and less hopeful influences suggests that the decline is nearing a capitulative or exhaustive phase, or at least vulnerable, just in time for Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. And last night’s action is neither hopeful, nor has it discounted price to attract buyers. I’d still watch for bounces as the holiday illiquidity gets exponentially closer — Thursday met and held decline’s next major target at 2453.25, which evaporating volume could leverage for a counter-trend rally. Of course, evaporating volume can cut either way. And 2453.25, like the decline’s prior objectives, didn’t close above a prior relevant level (e.g. 2500.00) that might have started sealing a bottom. Anyway, trend lows don’t coincide historically with expirations. That doesn’t preclude a bounce attempt, but nothing durable is likely near-term.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2475.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2467.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2461.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.