The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Expiration mirage.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s inside day persisted overnight until Europe’s opens. Then price action compensated for the delay. Ranging around Thursday’s 2788.00-2788.75 close broke lower to 2773.50, then fluctuated choppily between 2771.00-2782.00 through Friday’s open. A mid-morning plunge held a critical test of 2767.00 lower prior highs, and quickly recovered well before noon — leaving behind oversold RSIs that still require a retest. The afternoon bias environment exit surged to nearly fill the bap back up to Thursday’s close, holding at or above 2383.00-2384.00 through Fridays close. Bearish WedEX was nominally influential, if at all.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to 2779.00 and snapped back up to attack 2787.00. The blip-down was repeated, slower at first, and then becoming a plunge to 2772.25. Flat-to-lower ranging is now attacking Friday’s low to within 1 point at 2766.50, erasing almost all of Friday’s recovery
If, then…
Oversold RSIs at Friday’s low require a retest, which can be neutralized at before the open. Testing it before the open can still use its support to launch a bounce. Maybe touching 2767.00 post-open and recovering through the opening 15 minutes can also bounce this morning. But there’s otherwise no bullish reason to be revisiting 2767.00, and its retest would likely extend down to 2756.00. That said, impatiently resuming the decline immediately does have the best chance at recovering sooner. The bearish WedEX didn’t trigger decisively Wednesday and wasn’t rejected decisively Thursday. So, I hesitate to infer anything from its limited influence Friday afternoon. But I would anticipate relentless trending through Monday morning in the opening 15 minutes’ direction, until disproved.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2775.00 would be likely to trigger the 2777.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2769.50 would be likely to exceed the 2772.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.