The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Extreme volatility, squared.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s attack on its 2756.75 bias-down target had recovered to greet Wednesday’s open at its 2773.50 bias-up signal. That would be important at 10:15. Meanwhile, more important was whether the gap up would be maintained through the open, and preferably also extended. That was the only way to extend higher Wednesday, since Tuesday’s buyers had failed to gain traction. The gap up was maintained, but not extended. And then it wasn’t even maintained, failing to trigger the bias-up signal it was already testing. That put into play an objective below at 2763.00 which was not attacked any nearer than natural support at 2767.00. Triggering the afternoon’s bias-up signal put into play its 2779.75 target, which was attacked to within 2 points. Both 2767.00 and 2779.75 became “unfinished business.”

Overnight action’s new info…
For a single session to form BOTH sponsorship AND counter-trend sponsorship that triggers widely disparate objectives, already reflects an unstable market. Preventing either objective from being fulfilled is instability — squared. So, we ended yesterday by looking for S&Ps volatility to expand sharply Thursday. And it looks like overnight action got the memo. Globex’s initial 2770.00-2775.00 range gradually expanded to attack 2777.00 and then surged to test 2785.00. That was already retracing back down before midnight. Europe’s opens were greeted back down at 2777.00, and the slide extended sharply lower to 2762.00. Now a bounce is touching 2770.00, yesterday’s late low.

If, then…
From yesterday’s Market Wrap: S&Ps volatility should expand sharply Thursday, whether ranging more widely or trending sharply. How about a little of both. Each of the “unfinished business” above and below were met — including another gap fill, which combines with yesterday to make a pair. Now the overnight 23-point reversal is trying to recover back into yesterday’s range. It will probably find that 2767.00 has more intraday influence than it does overnight. And probing even 3 points above it (which is testing this morning’s 2769.50 bias-down signal as resistance) is still likely to resolve down to retest or attack 2756.00. Also, reversing the overnight probe above yesterday’s high back under the earlier 2770.00 overnight low, through this morning’s open, would point down aggressively through this morning, if not also through tomorrow morning. Having said all that, forming all of the basis for reversing down, but holding, would be as bullish as it could have been bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2763.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2761.50 bias-down target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2767.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2769.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2774.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.