The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Flat-to-flat-higher.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had held a test of the 2893.00 earlier overnight low (basis Dec), which avoided a bearish morning since overnight action had probed Tuesday’s high. But it didn’t prevent triggering the 2889.50 bias-down signal, or quickly fulfilling its Its 2884.00 bias-down target. But avoiding the bearish setup should have been as bullish as it would have been bearish. That was demonstrated by only a temporary surge to 2900.25 which was only a knee-jerk reaction to a headline. And it was retraced entirely back down to its 2888.00 origin. The close recovered 2894.00-2897.00 — still the highest close in a week, but buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially reacting down to 2891.00 and eventually down to 2890.00, overnight action has otherwise ranged choppily. Yesterday’s late 2897.25 high was finally pierced by a couple of ticks, and its 3-point reaction down to 2894.00 is recovering through yesterday’s high by several ticks up to 2891.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
[Reminder: The front-month rolls forward at this morning’s open to Dec which trades at a 5-point premium to Sep]… Having failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon, resuming the rally without delay all but requires gapping up Thursday. Not already probing higher overnight would likely already be probing lower, and be more vulnerable to trending down. Overnight hasn’t probed a prior low nor touched its bias-down signal. The window only now is probing a prior high, which is still early enough to extend ahead of the open. Yesterday’s close was retesting the highest close in a week, “unfinished business” above at 2895.50 (basis Sep) was neutralized, and now both are being probed overnight instead of rejected — so, today is an excellent opportunity to end the 2-week old pullback, and not doing so would be bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2901.50 would be likely to trigger the 2900.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2898.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.