The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Flat-to-lower-to flat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Closing flat with its 2863.50 open Tuesday had reflected indecision and distribution, enabling the afternoon’s decline to extend down sharply overnight to attack 2846.00. Recovering to greet Wednesday’s open at 2859.50 and extend through the morning to 2868.00 fulfilled the expected corrective bounce of the drop from Tuesday’s high. Dipping to 2860.50 through the 2:30 bias window exit produced a shallower bounce, which was retraced entirely into the close. The cash session close was within 3 ticks of 2863.50, still reflecting distribution.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower-to flat. The Globex open quickly firmed to probe 3 ticks above Tuesday’s 2863.50 cash session close. A reaction to China’s overnight intervention triggered a dip to 2857.50 by midnight. All of which has been retraced to retest Tuesday’s 2863.50 cash session close.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Leaving no “unfinished business” above Tuesday had also enabled the steeper, deeper overnight dip. Wednesday also leaves no unfinished business. But Tuesday’s drop was already underway organically, before that sponsorship was crowded out by the weak-handed knee-jerk reaction to a synthetic catalyst. That leg didn’t require a complete retracement to the headline’s origin, but it’s been done anyway. Can another downleg be credible before more fully rewarding Tuesday night’s buyers with fresh highs above 2874.00? Probably not if Thursday’s open doesn’t quickly start producing that downleg (I describe three setups in the Market Tour). But not gapping up to and/or through Wednesday’s 2868.25 high would not require a rally to target any particular higher objective.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2867.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2869.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2863.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2860.25 bias-down signal.